Market Commentary
Market Commentary
Market Commentary: Employment Numbers Beat Expectations as S&P 500 Nears February High
The U.S. economy added 1.8 million jobs in July as hiring momentum in the service sector allowed many workers to reclaim lost jobs or get new ones. The pace of hiring slowed compared to gains of 2.7 million and 4.8 million in May and June. The slowing growth reflects consumer caution as new virus cases surge and the slowing pace of economic reopening.
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: GDP Substantially Lower than Last Year, S&P Rallies in July
U.S. GDP fell 32.9% last quarter on an annualized basis. It wasn’t as bad as it looks. Annualizing the data magnifies the decline by assuming the trend will continue for a full year. A better assessment can be gained by comparing GDP to the same quarter last year.
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: S&P 500 Earnings are Strong, but Initial Unemployment Claims Increase
The increased number of COVID-19 cases appears to be pressuring employment in the U.S. Last week, the number of initial unemployment claims rose from 1.3 million to 1.4 million. (See Figure 1.) After slowly declining for weeks, the uptick shows signs of a weakening job market.
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: S&P 500 Positive for the Year as Retail Sales Rise
Evidence for a sharp, although possibly brief, economic recovery continues to mount. As shown in Figure 1, retail sales rebounded another 7.5% in June and are now 1.1% higher than a year ago. Signs of economic reopening showed up throughout the data released last week.
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: S&P Climbs Despite Surge in COVID-19 Cases
Stocks continued to climb in the face of an increasing number of new COVID-19 cases and evidence the surge is stifling the economy’s ability to recover. Initial unemployment claims dipped to 1.3 million, but they have remained above 1 million for 16 consecutive weeks.
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: Markets See Huge Boost as Optimism Outweighs Slowed Reopening
The S&P 500 wrapped up its best quarter since 1998, gaining 20.5%, amid a strong employment report and continued concerns as the United States and the world posted a record number of coronavirus cases.
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: S&P 500 Dips as COVID-19 Cases Surge
The daily total for new virus cases topped 40,000 as a resurgence in the South and Southwest pushed new cases to an all-time-record high. Some states are reporting record hospitalizations and pausing or reversing reopenings. Initial unemployment claims, as shown in Figure 1, remain close to 1.5 million.
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: Retail Sales Jump as States Loosen Restrictions
Retail sales and food services jumped 17.7% in May, beating estimates of 8% growth. The strong rebound follows sharp declines the previous month created by social distancing. Even with the increase, sales are still 6.1% below where they were one year ago.
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: Fed Committed to Near-Zero Rates, S&P Dips
The S&P 500 dropped 4.7% last week on concerns the uptick in new coronavirus cases would persist and slow the economic rally. The surprising job growth reported two weeks ago suggested the economy was rallying more quickly than expected and boosted investor optimism. But the recent uptick in cases and hospitalizations in some states caused investors to ratchet back their expectations for how fast the economy will recover.
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: Record Month of New Jobs, S&P 500 Continues Rise
The jobs market rallied back far sooner and stronger than expected. The U.S. economy created 2.5 million new jobs in May. Economists had projected a loss of 7 million jobs, so the surprise was massive. The gains are mainly attributable to workers who were temporarily laid off being called back to work as lockdowns ended or were relaxed.
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