Market Commentary
Market Commentary
Market Commentary: Retail Sales Spike, but Unemployment Claims Still on Rise
Retail sales rebounded as U.S. consumers continued to put salaries and money left over from the CARES Act into the economy. Retail and food service sales surged 1.9%, more than doubling expectations of 0.8%. The gains raised overall retail sales 5.4% above year-ago levels as consumers make up for consumption lost during the early days of social distancing (Figure 1).
Read More
Market Commentary
Market Commentary: Stocks Rallied in Hopes of Potential Stimulus Package
U.S. stocks rallied on expectations that a stimulus package will be passed in the coming months and additional packages will be easier to pass. The Trump administration offered proposals closer to the most recent Democratic offer. Even if no deal is reached prior to the election, polls suggest the Democratic Party may control the presidency and both houses of Congress. One-party control makes it significantly easier to pass legislation.
Read More
Market Commentary
Market Commentary: Markets Face Uncertainty as Economy Recovers, Tension Grows in Washington
Politics created the biggest market headlines last week. Investors wrestled with the tone of the presidential debate and how it contributes to political uncertainty. Stimulus negotiations between the House and the Trump administration narrowed the gap between the two parties, but they were unable to produce a deal. The president contracting COVID-19 contributed to the sense of uncertainty.
Read More
Market Commentary
Market Commentary: S&P Continues Decline, but Home Sales on the Rise
The S&P 500 declined for the fourth straight week. On Wednesday, the index of large U.S. companies had declined just more than 9.5% but rallied late in the week. The S&P 500 is 7.8% below its Sept. 2 high. The four-week decline has matched the characteristics of a price adjustment after a large run-up in markets.
Read More
Market Commentary
Market Commentary: Restaurants are Rebounding, but S&P Still Lags
Retail sales figures continued a string of economic data pointing toward slowing growth accompanied by a gradual reopening of state economies. Consumers seem willing to take some risks. Retail and food service sales rose 0.6% last month. (See Chart 1.) Increased sales at restaurants contributed most to the monthly gains.
Read More
Market Commentary
Market Commentary: The S&P fell for the Second Week Straight and Inflation Rises
Stocks continued to retreat as losses on Tuesday were large enough to push the market down more than 2% for the second week in a row. The S&P 500 has retraced 6.7% of its massive rally from the lows in March.
Read More
Market Commentary
Market Commentary: Sharp Decline in S&P 500 Could Signal More Volatility
Investors were reminded stock investing comes with volatility as the S&P 500 dropped 3.5% on Thursday and declined 2.3% for the week. The downside pressure was felt most directly by stocks that had performed best. Figure 1 shows the best performing stocks this year (furthest to the right) lagged during the downturn (closest to the bottom).
Read More
Market Commentary
Market Commentary: Higher Inflation Expected in Coming Years, S&P Sees More Gains
The Federal Reserve announced a major policy revision last week. The revised strategy indicates rates will stay low for a long period of time and will increase slower than in past rate cycles. The report and a subsequent speech by Fed Chair Jay Powell indicate the Fed will allow inflation to move above its 2% target to make up for periods when inflation has been less than 2%.
Read More
Market Commentary
Weekly Market Commentary: The S&P Sets Recovery Records, Housing Market Showing Gains
The S&P 500 continued to march higher, rising 0.8% last week. Excluding dividends, the index of large-cap U.S. stocks reached a new record. Some investors prefer this measure for determining when bear markets end. By almost any measure, the S&P 500 is no longer in a bear market.
Read More
Market Commentary
Market Commentary: Economic Recovery May Slow After Sharp Early Rebound
U.S. economic data last week supported the view the U.S. is entering a period of slower economic growth after a sharp recovery in May and June. Mandatory and voluntary social distancing efforts limit how quickly the economy can recover when certain segments, such as restaurants, are still struggling.
Read More